The Tungsten Supply War: Why One Stock Rose 2,400% and Others May Follow

China controls more than 80% of the world’s tungsten supply. The United States has given defense contractors until January 2027 to stop sourcing tungsten from China. Tungsten prices have surged. One company, Almonty Industries, has risen more than 2,400% in roughly sixteen months. Several smaller companies are now positioning themselves to benefit from the same trend. The question investors are asking is straightforward: has the market already priced this opportunity in, or is the tungsten supply story only getting started?

China Tungsten Export Controls 2026: How Beijing Controls 80% of Global Supply

Tungsten is a critical material used in defense systems, aerospace components, semiconductors, and industrial manufacturing. It carries the highest melting point of any metal. Its hardness at extreme temperatures is unmatched by any commercially available alternative. Those properties are not interchangeable. Ammonium paratungstate (APT) is the primary processed form of tungsten traded globally, produced by refining tungsten ore concentrates and serving as the feedstock for finished tungsten components. There is no commercially viable substitute for tungsten in armor-piercing ammunition, aerospace turbines, or the interconnect layers inside advanced semiconductors. That has been studied extensively. The answer has not changed.

China currently controls more than 80% of global tungsten production and processing. That dominance was built over four decades through state-directed investment that made western mine development economically unviable for most of that period. The western world effectively exited the tungsten supply chain and forgot it had done so.

In January 2026, China tightened export restrictions on high-purity tungsten products under its Dual-Use Items Catalog. The stated rationale was national security. The practical effect was to remove the most refined, highest-value form of tungsten from the global export market. At the same time, the United States is moving toward a January 2027 deadline that will prohibit defense contractors from sourcing tungsten from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea for military applications. This is not a guideline. It is a hard procurement cutoff under the National Defense Authorization Act.

The problem is that western production capacity remains limited. Combined output from established non-Chinese sources in Austria, Portugal, Spain, and South Korea represents a fraction of the volume China has restricted from export. New mines take 10 to 15 years to develop from discovery to production. The supply imbalance cannot be resolved before January 2027 regardless of price. That is why APT prices have risen 273% year on year and why CICC forecasts the global supply demand gap will exceed 17% of total demand from 2026 to 2028.

Why Almonty Industries (TSX: AII) Rose 2,400%: The Sangdong Mine Story

The company that has benefited most from this trend is Almonty Industries, listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol AII and also trading on Nasdaq under the ticker symbol ALM. The stock traded at approximately C$1.36 at the end of 2024. By April 2026 it had reached a high above C$33. That is a gain of more than 2,400% in roughly sixteen months. The stock is currently trading around C$27.00.

The reason for that move is straightforward. Almonty’s Sangdong Mine in South Korea is widely viewed as the most important non-Chinese tungsten project in the world. Sangdong delivered its first ore to the run-of-mine pad in December 2025, transitioning from a construction project to an active mining operation. Revenue surged 221% in the first quarter of 2026 as the mine entered the commissioning phase. The company turned cash-flow positive in that quarter for the first time. TTM average APT pricing increased 534% year on year, which is flowing directly into revenue as production volumes build.

Almonty’s Sangdong Mine

The Nasdaq listing in July 2025 at US$4.50 per share was the event that brought US institutional capital into a story that TSX investors had been building for years. A follow-on offering in December 2025 at US$6.25 per share raised a further US$129 million, funding the final push to full commercial production. Eight analysts now cover the stock with a Strong Buy consensus and price targets ranging from C$24.50 to C$37.40. Alliance Global raised its target to C$26.25 in May 2026. BofA raised to US$23. B. Riley to US$23. Oppenheimer to US$19.

The key catalyst from here is full commercial production, expected in the second half of 2026. Almonty has binding hard floor offtake agreements in place for US defense applications. When Sangdong reaches nameplate capacity, it converts from a development story into a cash-generating producer serving customers who have no alternative source of comparable scale. The investors who built positions on the TSX at C$1.36 understood that before the Nasdaq listing made it obvious to everyone else.

Western Tungsten Developers 2026: Fireweed Metals, Allied Critical Metals, and Guardian Metal Resources

Almonty may have been the first major winner in western tungsten. Several other companies are attempting to position themselves within the same theme. Each carries a different risk profile and a different timeline to potential value creation. None of them are Almonty. That is both the risk and the opportunity.

Fireweed Metals (TSX-V: FWZ): The World’s Largest High-Grade Tungsten Deposit

Fireweed Metals is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the ticker symbol FWZ. The current share price is approximately C$4.41. The company’s Mactung project in the Yukon holds an indicated resource of 41.5 million tonnes at 0.73% WO3 and an inferred resource of 12.2 million tonnes at 0.59% WO3. It is the largest high-grade tungsten deposit outside of China. Full stop.

A feasibility study commenced in March 2026, engaging internationally recognized engineering consultants, with the study expected to complete in early 2027. The timing positions Fireweed to present a fully costed development plan at precisely the moment the January 2027 deadline has taken effect and the western supply gap is at its most acute.

The company raised over C$61.5 million in a private placement that closed April 2, 2026. The lead investors were Japan’s JX Advanced Metals and the Lundin Family Trusts. JX Advanced Metals is Japan’s primary critical metals refiner with a track record of identifying strategic mineral assets ahead of the broader market. The Lundin Family Trusts now hold approximately 23% of Fireweed. The Lundin group does not take 23% positions in companies they do not intend to develop. The feasibility study completion in early 2027 is the next material re-rating event.

Allied Critical Metals (CSE: ACM): First Tungsten Production Targeted Q4 2026

Allied Critical Metals is listed on the Canadian Securities Exchange under the ticker symbol ACM. The current share price is approximately C$2.03. The company operates the Borralha and Vila Verde projects in northern Portugal. Among the companies in this analysis, Allied has the shortest stated timeline to potential first production.

On April 24, 2026 it announced a US$40 million financing and offtake agreement with a strategic investor, including a floor price of US$1,000 per MTU on 50% of tungsten concentrate production. Combined with a concurrent private placement, the company now holds over US$45 million in cash liquidity and is fully funded through the end of 2027. First tungsten concentrate production from the Vila Verde pilot plant is targeted for Q4 2026.

The floor price is the detail that matters most. A contracted minimum of US$1,000 per MTU against a current European spot price of $3,000 to $3,280 per MTU means the revenue downside is protected while the upside remains open. Insider ownership sits at approximately 14% following recent buying. Drilling at the Borralha project this week intersected over 200 metres with multiple intercepts of visible tungsten mineralization at a new breccia target. Allied represents the most compressed timeline to first production among the emerging western tungsten developers.

DoD photo by Master Sgt. Ken Hammond, U.S. Air Force

Guardian Metal Resources (OTC: GMTLF): The Pentagon-Funded Domestic Tungsten Play in Nevada

Guardian Metal Resources trades on the OTC market under the ticker symbol GMTLF. The current share price is approximately US$3.14. The company holds two tungsten projects in Nevada, Pilot Mountain and Tempiute, both located in historic tungsten districts with documented prior production. Guardian is the earliest-stage of the four companies in this analysis.

What makes Guardian unique is direct support from the US Department of Defense. In July 2025, the DOD invested US$6.2 million into Guardian’s subsidiary under Title III of the Defense Production Act of 1950, specifically to fund the Pilot Mountain prefeasibility study. Title III investments are reserved for projects the DOD considers essential to national defense industrial capacity. The company completed its IPO on NYSE American in March 2026. This week it announced the identification of tungsten-enriched historical tailings at the Tempiute site, adding a near-term processing opportunity alongside the primary development program.

Guardian carries more development risk than Almonty, Fireweed, or Allied. It is also the only US-domiciled, DOD-funded tungsten developer currently trading on public markets. For investors who believe the January 2027 deadline creates specific demand for domestically sourced tungsten supply, Guardian is the most direct expression of that thesis. The prefeasibility study, funded by the Pentagon, is the next material catalyst.

Key Risks Every Tungsten Investor Needs to Understand

Not every tungsten company will become the next Almonty. The 2,400% move that TSX:AII delivered over sixteen months was built on a specific combination of factors: an advanced asset, a non-Chinese jurisdiction, binding defense offtake, and a production timeline that arrived at exactly the right moment. Those factors do not automatically transfer to earlier-stage developers.

Mining projects face permitting risk. Environmental approvals can take years and can be denied. Development timelines slip. Equipment delivery delays, labor shortages, and cost overruns are common in the mining industry and can affect even well-funded projects. The companies covered in this analysis are at various stages of development. Fireweed, Allied, and Guardian are not yet generating production revenue. That means they are burning cash, dependent on continued access to equity and debt markets, and exposed to share dilution if additional capital raises are required.

Commodity prices can be volatile. The structural supply deficit is real and well documented. But APT has risen sharply, and sharp moves can reverse. If Beijing changes its posture on exports, prices fall. If defense procurement timelines slip or industrial demand softens, the urgency that has driven valuations starts to erode. Development-stage companies without production revenue would feel that most.

The January 2027 deadline is a hard catalyst for demand but it does not guarantee that every western tungsten developer successfully captures that demand. Defense procurement is concentrated, subject to qualification requirements, and favors established supply chain relationships. Smaller developers need to demonstrate product quality, delivery reliability, and regulatory compliance to compete for those contracts. Almonty has done that. The others are working toward it.

Market liquidity is a separate risk that applies specifically to the smaller names in this analysis. ACM trades on the CSE and GMTLF on the OTC market. Daily trading volumes on both can be thin. Investors who build positions can find it difficult to exit quickly without moving the price against themselves. That cuts both ways. A stock that rises sharply on light volume can fall just as sharply on modest selling pressure. Position sizing matters in this part of the market.

What to Watch: The Catalysts That Will Define the Tungsten Market Through Year End

Almonty Sangdong full commercial production: expected second half of 2026. The transition from commissioning to nameplate output is the most significant near-term event in the western tungsten supply chain. Watch for quarterly production reports and delivery updates against the hard floor offtake schedule.

Allied Critical Metals Q4 first concentrate: the Vila Verde pilot plant production target remains the most compressed timeline to first output among emerging developers. Watch for permitting updates and any equipment procurement announcements that confirm or adjust the Q4 2026 timeline.

Fireweed Metals feasibility study progress: the study commenced March 2026 and is expected to complete in early 2027. Interim technical updates and any resource expansion from ongoing drilling will be the re-rating catalysts for FWZ through the rest of the year.

Guardian Metal Resources Pilot Mountain PFS: advancing on DOD funding under the Title III timeline. Watch for the prefeasibility study completion date and any additional federal investment announcements under the Defense Production Act.

January 2027 deadline: the single most important date in the tungsten investment calendar. Every month that passes without sufficient new western supply coming online tightens the market further. Watch for defense contractor procurement announcements and any congressional action extending or tightening the Chinese sourcing restrictions.

The Tungsten Market Is Small Today. The Supply War Is Just Getting Started.

The tungsten market is still small compared to sectors like gold, copper, or lithium. But the combination of geopolitical tension, structural supply shortages, and national security requirements has put this critical metal back on investors’ radar in a way that is unlikely to reverse. The January 2027 deadline is a fixed point on the calendar. The western supply chain being built to meet it is the investment story playing out in real time.

Whether Almonty’s 2,400% rally is the beginning of a broader trend across the sector or an exceptional case built on unique circumstances remains to be seen. What is clear is that tungsten has moved from a niche industrial commodity to one of the most closely watched critical minerals in the market. The companies building the non-Chinese supply chain for a metal that cannot be substituted, in defense applications that cannot wait, are operating at the intersection of commodity investing and national security. That is a rare combination. The market is still working out what it is worth.

Sources

Editorial Disclosure

This analysis is based entirely on publicly available information including press releases, regulatory filings, and verified market data. AktieGo is not paid by the companies mentioned in this article unless explicitly stated. No compensation has been received from Almonty Industries, Fireweed Metals, Allied Critical Metals, Guardian Metal Resources, or any related party in connection with this article. Securities discussed include Almonty Industries Inc. (TSX: AII; Nasdaq: ALM; ASX: AII), Fireweed Metals Corp. (TSX-V: FWZ; OTCQX: FWEDF), Allied Critical Metals Inc. (CSE: ACM; OTCQB: ACMIF), and Guardian Metal Resources PLC (OTC: GMTLF). No staff member or principal of aktiego.com holds a position in any security mentioned at the time of publication. All information is sourced from named public filings on SEC EDGAR, TSX, TSX-V, CSE, and company press releases via named wire services. Tungsten price data sourced to Fastmarkets, China Tungsten Industry News Center, and Asian Metal, timestamped May 18 to 24, 2026. Junior mining company resources verified against NI 43-101 compliant technical reports and named regulatory filings. Analyst price targets attributed to named firms and sourced to TipRanks and named financial media. Forward-looking commentary regarding production timelines, regulatory outcomes, commodity prices, and market developments is opinion only. All securities mentioned carry significant investment risk including total loss of capital. Coverage on aktiego.com is provided for informational and educational purposes only. aktiego.com is not a registered investment advisor. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For more information please see our full DISCLAIMER.

The Tungsten Supply War: Why One Stock Rose 2,400% and Others May Follow

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