Moroccan Phosphate Tariffs Suspended: Mosaic Takes the Hit, Five Companies Stand to Benefit

The U.S. declared a food supply emergency on June 29 and suspended countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months. StoneX’s head of fertilizer said North America is already one of the cheapest phosphate destinations in the world. Morocco has little incentive to ship there.

Moroccan Phosphate Tariffs 2021–2026: How One Petition Built a Trade Barrier and Why It Just Came Down

Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) petitioned the US Department of Commerce in June 2020, alleging Morocco’s state-owned OCP Group received unlawful government subsidies. Countervailing duties (CVDs) were imposed in March 2021. OCP stopped shipping phosphate to the US market entirely. The case ran through courts for five years.

In April 2025, a judge found the DOC had wrongly counted a broad Moroccan tax relief program available to all taxpayers as a specific industry subsidy. They revised its rate down to 2.11% in January 2026. The U.S. filed an appeal and dropped it on March 4, 2026. That same week, phosphate and potash were designated critical minerals under the Defense Production Act. Morocco had shifted from trade dispute counterpart to strategic resource partner without a press release marking the change.

Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz: How Fertilizer Became a National Emergency in 2026

US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026 triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Around one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade moves through it. Supply from Gulf producers stopped moving.

MAP prices in Canada hit $1,307 per tonne in April. Phosphate at NOLA reached approximately $778 per short ton in June, up 41% from June 2024. A Texas A&M study released in January 2026 concluded the CVDs had cost US farmers $6.9 billion between 2021 and 2025. Seven out of ten American farmers told the American Farm Bureau they could not afford enough fertilizer for the 2026 crop year.

The suspension invokes Section 318 of the Tariff Act of 1930. USDA estimates it could lower phosphate prices by 22% and save farmers $1.82 billion annually, if Moroccan supply actually arrives.

Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS): The Domestic Phosphate Producer Without Its Protection

Mosaic reported a net loss of $258 million in Q1 2026. Adjusted EPS was $0.05 against a consensus of $0.24. The company withdrew its phosphate production guidance for 2026, cut capital expenditure guidance from $1.5 billion to $1.25 billion, and began partial production curtailments in May due to surging sulfuric acid prices. Mosaic controls roughly 75% of US domestic phosphate production.

Oppenheimer expects the stock to be weaker on the suspension news. The firm noted that the impact on domestic pricing will develop over a longer period. Mosaic trades near five-year lows. Rothschild and Co Redburn initiated coverage with a Buy on June 26, three days before the announcement, with a price target of $27.03.

Five Companies Positioned to Benefit From Lower Phosphate Fertilizer Prices

Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE: NTR; TSX: NTR)

The world’s largest agricultural retailer runs roughly 2,000 retail locations across North America. When phosphate prices fall, farmer purchasing power rises across every input category Nutrien sells: seed, crop protection, services, not just fertilizer. Revenue was $26.9 billion in 2025, up 4%, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.04 billion, up 13%. Nutrien is also a named defendant in a class-action price-coordination lawsuit filed by Iowa-based Union Line Farms in March 2026, alongside Mosaic, CF Industries, and others. That case is ongoing.

Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG)

Grain merchants and processors benefit when farmers plant more acres. High fertilizer costs in 2026 have suppressed farmer investment, which means less crop volume for Bunge to process. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $7.50-$8.00 to $9.00-$9.50 on better oilseed processing margins from its Viterra acquisition. That guidance was set before the phosphate tariff suspension was announced.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF)

Primarily a nitrogen producer with no direct phosphate exposure. CF has outperformed Mosaic in 2026 on lower sulfur cost exposure. When farmer budgets improve from cheaper phosphate, nitrogen is typically the first additional nutrient they apply. CF carries none of the Mosaic-style downside from the suspension and sits directly in the farmer spending recovery path.

Corteva Inc. (NYSE: CTVA)

Seeds and crop protection. When farmers cannot afford fertilizer, premium seed adoption and crop protection spending fall alongside it. Deere (NYSE: DE) cited a “prolonged trough” in the agricultural cycle when it cut its 2026 net income guidance to $4.0 to $4.75 billion. Corteva faces the same farmer-affordability headwind from a different angle. A 22% reduction in phosphate costs does not solve every input budget problem, but it moves the calculation.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM)

Grain trader and processor. ADM shares underperformed in 2026 as high input costs pushed farmers toward reduced acreage and lower fertilizer application rates, compressing the volumes ADM depends on. Analysts flagged what they called a pincer effect: under-application of fertilizer leads to lower crop yields, which means less grain to trade and process the following season. ADM has not updated 2026 guidance in response to the tariff suspension.

What to Watch: OCP’s Response, the Fall Application Window, and the Sunset Review

Whether OCP responds with actual shipments is the first test. For five years it refused to send product to the US while the CVD rate was in place. The rate is now suspended. The economics remain unfavorable, per StoneX. North American phosphate values are among the lowest globally. What Linville said he is hoping for is closer to a political gesture.

The fall application season runs August and September. That is when North American farmers reload fertilizer supplies ahead of the following year’s planting. Moroccan product needs to arrive before that window closes to affect 2027 planting decisions. Mosaic’s Q3 production expectations hinge on sulfur contract prices not yet set when the proclamation was signed.

Senator Roger Marshall’s bill, the Lowering Input Costs for American Farmers Act, co-sponsored by Grassley, Hyde-Smith, and Ernst, would make the suspension permanent legislation. It was introduced in April 2026 and has not moved.

The sunset review of the original CVD orders is also currently underway at Commerce and the ITC. That process determines whether the duties return in full when the eight months expire.

Sources

Editorial Disclosure

This article is based entirely on publicly available information including company SEC filings, government publications, wire service reporting, and named industry sources. Securities discussed include Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE: NTR; TSX: NTR), Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG), CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF), Corteva Inc. (NYSE: CTVA), Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE: ADM), and Deere & Company (NYSE: DE), which is referenced for agricultural cycle context only. OCP Group, Morocco’s state-owned phosphate producer, is listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange and is not directly accessible to most North American retail investors; it is discussed in this article in its capacity as a market participant. aktiego.com has not received any compensation from any company mentioned, their management, investor relations representatives, or any third party in connection with this article. No staff member or principal of aktiego.com holds a position in any security mentioned at the time of publication. All financial figures are sourced from company SEC filings or named publications as cited in the sources section above. Mosaic Q1 2026 results are sourced from Mosaic’s Form 8-K filed May 11, 2026 via SEC EDGAR. The USDA 22% price reduction estimate is attributed to a statement by Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins on June 29, 2026. The Texas A&M $6.9 billion figure is from the Agricultural and Food Policy Center study, January 2026. StoneX commentary is attributed to Josh Linville, VP Fertilizer, StoneX, via Red River Farm Network, June 30, 2026. Oppenheimer analyst commentary is attributed via Investing.com reporting, July 1, 2026. Fertilizer investing involves commodity price, geopolitical, regulatory, and operational risks, including the potential for total loss of capital for equity investors. aktiego.com is not a registered investment advisor. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For more information please see our full DISCLAIMER.