Critical Minerals Weekly: Gold Firms, Silver Rips, Teck Bets on Arizona

Gold closed Friday May 8 at $4,722.55 per ounce, up 2.3% for the week. Silver was the real mover — up 9.18% to $80.46. Copper hit $6.30 per pound on COMEX, a 4.49% weekly gain and its strongest close in months. Three metals, all up hard in the same week. The macro driver is the same across all three: geopolitical uncertainty, central bank demand, and a supply side that cannot keep pace with where the world is heading.

The project-level news matched the price action. Teck and Kodiak signed a letter of intent to create a new US-focused copper explorer in Arizona. USA Rare Earth disclosed the terms of its $1.6 billion Department of Commerce funding deal. Newmont fired a default notice at Barrick over the Nevada joint venture. A busy ten days.

1. Gold at $4,722. The Floor Is Holding.

Gold peaked at $5,405 per ounce intraday on January 29, 2026. By mid-March it had dropped nearly 17%. The floor has emerged around $4,400 to $4,700. Friday’s close of $4,722.55 is the third consecutive weekly gain. The correction phase looks increasingly like it is done.

Central banks are the structural anchor. Reserves have moved from 9% to 24% of total holdings since 2015, with central banks now owning roughly 18% of all gold ever mined — 38,214 tonnes. Last year, central bank gold reserves surpassed US Treasury reserve holdings for the first time since 1996. Gold ETF holdings rose 18% in 2025 to 97.5 million ounces, still below the 2020 record of 111 million ounces. There is room for further inflows.

For miners, the margins are exceptional. S&P Global projects gold miners will achieve all-in sustaining cost margins above $3,200 per ounce in 2026. At $4,700-plus spot, that is the widest margin environment the sector has seen. Not all of that is translating cleanly — cost inflation has reset the long-term incentive price higher. But for producers with clean balance sheets and low-cost assets, this is a generational earnings window.

2. Copper at $6.30. The Structural Deficit Is Not Going Away.

COMEX copper closed at $6.30 per pound on May 8, up 4.49% for the week. The 2026 LME consensus price forecast sits at around $12,100 per metric ton but spot has been trading well above that for weeks. Bloomberg Intelligence is forecasting copper prices up 25% versus 2025 in its base scenario. More than 99% of global copper production sits below the 2026 consensus price. The margin environment for copper producers is historically strong.

The structural picture explains why. A cumulative deficit of roughly 3 million tonnes is projected by 2036. Most new supply is coming from brownfield expansions, not greenfield discoveries. Rio Tinto has lifted copper output 54% since 2019 through the Oyu Tolgoi ramp. BHP managed only 11% growth over the same period. Copper is now expected to account for more than 35% of diversified miners’ EBITDA in 2026, up 14% from eight years ago. It is the earnings engine of the sector.

The smelter side remains stressed. China built roughly four times more smelting capacity than global concentrate supply growth over the past three years. Treatment charges are still deeply negative. Visible global inventories exceeded 1.3 million tonnes in March, adding near-term price pressure, but analysts are clear that visible inventory builds do not resolve structural tightness. The concentrate market stays tight for years regardless of what sits in warehouses.

3. Silver Up 9% in a Week. The Supply Math Has Not Changed.

Silver closed at $80.46 on May 8, up 9.18% for the week. It hit a record $121 per ounce in January before pulling back sharply. 762 million ounces have been drawn from global silver inventories since 2021, according to data from the Silver Institute and Metals Focus. That drawdown is not easily reversed.

The supply constraint is structural. 70 to 75% of silver is produced as a byproduct of lead, zinc, and copper mining. Miners cannot easily increase silver output in response to higher prices — the production decision is made by the primary metal economics. Industrial demand from solar, EVs, and electronics remains the dominant driver. Coin and bar demand is forecast up 18% to 258 million ounces in 2026. Silver ETF holdings rose 17% to 835 million ounces in 2025 before profit-taking occurred.

Not everyone is bullish. TD Securities flagged that the London silver market has replenished over 212 million ounces of physical inventory, and that spot silver trading volumes dropped 65% from their October peak. The agency is watching for a supply replenishment wave entering 2026. Heraeus projects a 2026 trading range of $43 to $62 per ounce — a wide band that reflects genuine disagreement on where demand settles after the January spike. At $80.46, silver is already well above the top of that range. The week’s move demands an explanation that the consensus has not fully provided.

4. Teck and Kodiak Spin Two Arizona Copper Projects into a New Explorer

Kodiak Copper (TSXV: KDK) and Teck Resources (TSX: TECK) signed a non-binding letter of intent on April 29 to create a new US-focused copper exploration company through Kay Copper, a currently unlisted vehicle. Kodiak contributes its Mohave project, a 17 square kilometre porphyry copper-molybdenum-silver target in Mohave County, Arizona. Teck contributes Copper Hill, a 35 square kilometre site with underexplored porphyry targets in Arizona’s prolific mining belt.

Each company receives 20 million shares at a nominal value of $0.25 per share. Post-close ownership: Kodiak 28%, Teck 28%, existing Kay Copper shareholders 9%, remainder to new financing participants. Teck secures offtake rights on certain future concentrate production. Kay Copper will apply to list on the TSXV. Close is targeted for Q3 2026, pending regulatory and due diligence approvals.

The strategic logic is straightforward. Arizona sits inside the US tariff perimeter. A domestically-focused copper exploration vehicle, backed by a major like Teck and listed on a junior exchange, is built exactly for the current policy environment. Both the Mohave and Copper Hill projects have seen minimal modern drilling. Early-stage copper in the right jurisdiction is attracting capital faster than at any point in the past decade.

5. USA Rare Earth Discloses Terms of Its $1.6 Billion Federal Deal

USA Rare Earth disclosed the structure of its Department of Commerce collaboration in an SEC filing this month. The company signed an LOI for $1.6 billion in funding under the CHIPS Program, targeting the Round Top project in Sierra Blanca, Texas, its hydrometallurgical demonstration facility in Colorado, and its magnet manufacturing build-out. The company raised $1.5 billion through a common stock PIPE in January 2026, meeting one of the LOI milestones. $277 million in shares and warrants representing 10% of fully diluted shares are to be issued to the Department of Commerce.

The project breakdown: $137 million in Other Transaction Authority plus $600 million in debt for the Round Top mine targeting heavy rare earths. $35 million OTA plus $175 million debt for metals processing. $105 million OTA plus $525 million debt for the magnet facility. Total estimated capex is $4.1 billion. The Accelerated Mining Plan is targeted for completion in the second half of 2026. USA Rare Earth is building what it describes as the largest domestic heavy rare earth, critical mineral, metal, and magnet platform in the United States by 2030.

The Round Top deposit in Texas holds the largest known concentration of heavy rare earths in the Western Hemisphere, including terbium, dysprosium, and other elements critical to permanent magnets used in EV motors and defense systems. The acquisition of LCM, a proven ex-China producer of rare earth metals and alloys, gave the company internal metal-making capability. The federal funding structure reflects how seriously Washington is treating rare earth supply chain independence.

What to Watch: May 18 – May 25, 2026

Newmont-Barrick Nevada JV default notice: Newmont issued a notice of default to Barrick over alleged mismanagement at their Nevada joint venture. This is one of the world’s most valuable gold JVs. If the dispute escalates to formal proceedings it complicates Barrick’s plan to spin off its North American assets and could force a restructuring of the entire Nevada operating structure. Resolution or escalation expected within days.

BHP Vicuna technical study: due in Q1 2026, still not released. The Vicuna copper-gold district in Argentina and Chile is one of the largest undeveloped copper systems in the world, sitting adjacent to Lundin’s Filo del Sol. BHP’s technical study will set the parameters for a multi-billion development decision. Every week it is delayed adds uncertainty to BHP’s copper growth narrative.

USA Rare Earth definitive agreement with DOC: the LOI targeted April 2026 for definitive documentation. That deadline has passed. A formal signing announcement will trigger a significant capital raise event and set concrete construction timelines for Round Top.

Kay Copper TSXV listing application: Kodiak and Teck need to file for exchange approval following the LOI. Watch for a formal application announcement, which will open the capital raise process for the new Arizona-focused vehicle.

India gold jewelry boycott: Prime Minister Modi has asked Indians to stop buying gold jewelry for a year. India is consistently one of the world’s two largest gold demand markets. If the campaign gains traction beyond initial media coverage, it represents a material demand headwind for gold in the second half of 2026.

Sources

Editorial Disclosure

This roundup is based on a combination of press releases, regulatory filings, market data, and independent research sourced from publicly available information. It covers developments during the period of May 8 to May 18, 2026, in the mining, critical minerals, and metals markets sectors. Securities discussed in this article include Kodiak Copper Corp. (TSXV: KDK), Teck Resources Limited (TSX: TECK.A / TECK.B), USA Rare Earth, Inc. (referenced on the basis of SEC filings; ticker to be confirmed following PIPE close), Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM), and Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: GOLD). None of these companies compensated aktiego.com for editorial coverage. Kay Copper is a currently unlisted private company referenced on the basis of a non-binding letter of intent; no shares are publicly traded at the time of publication. Market price data is time-stamped as follows: gold at $4,722.55 per ounce (May 8, 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT, Investing News Network / TradingView); silver at $80.46 per ounce (May 8, 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT); COMEX copper at $6.30 per pound (May 8, 2026, 4:00 p.m. EDT). All price data reflects spot or near-month futures market pricing and is subject to volatility. Forward-looking statements, project timelines, production forecasts, and analyst price targets are sourced to named institutions and represent opinions at the time of publication. They are not guarantees of future performance, regulatory approval, or project completion. Editorial forward-look commentary reflects the author’s own assessment. The information provided on this website is for informational and educational purposes only. Our content is derived strictly from verified online sources to ensure accuracy and objectivity. This analysis does not constitute financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers are encouraged to consult with qualified professionals before making decisions based on this information. For more information, please see our full DISCLAIMER.

Critical Minerals Weekly: Gold Firms, Silver Rips, Teck Bets on Arizona

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