Strategy has been here before. In October 2025, MSCI proposed excluding bitcoin treasury companies from its indexes and the market wiped out $190 billion in leveraged positions inside 48 hours before the index provider backed down in January. This month MSCI came back with a different rule that reaches the same companies anyway.
MSCI’s New Screen Doesn’t Mention Bitcoin, But It Still Catches Strategy
MSCI opened a new consultation this month proposing a two-stage screen for its Global Investable Market Indexes that would exclude “non-operating companies.” The first stage checks whether operating assets exceed 50 percent of a company’s total assets. Companies that fail move to a second stage testing five financial ratios; failing at least four of the five means removal. Unlike MSCI’s October 2025 proposal, which explicitly targeted digital-asset treasury firms holding 50 percent or more of assets in crypto, this version is written in asset-neutral language that never mentions bitcoin.
The result lands in the same place regardless. Applied to May 2026 data, the screen would have removed three companies from the MSCI ACWI IMI Index: Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and uranium holder Yellow Cake. Two more, including SharpLink Gaming, landed on a watchlist that would trigger removal after one more weak annual review. Existing index members get a small cushion current entrants don’t: they must fail the screen in two consecutive annual reviews before removal, rather than a single filing.
JPMorgan Estimates $2.8 Billion in Forced Selling if Strategy Is Removed
JPMorgan previously estimated that a Strategy removal from MSCI’s indexes could drive roughly $2.8 billion in passive selling of MSTR shares, as index-tracking funds are mechanically required to rebalance out of a name that no longer qualifies. That is JPMorgan’s own estimate, not a confirmed outcome, and it depends entirely on whether MSCI adopts the rule as written. Strategy’s float-adjusted market capitalization sits at roughly $23.9 billion, meaning a $2.8 billion forced sale would represent close to 12 percent of the float trading in a compressed window around the index effective date.
The market has already shown what a version of this threat can do. When MSCI first floated excluding digital-asset treasury companies in October 2025, bitcoin fell from $122,000 to $105,000 within 48 hours and leveraged position liquidations exceeded $190 billion industry-wide, a far larger move than the specific MSTR exposure alone would suggest. MSTR fell 4.3 percent on Friday, August 14, as bitcoin dipped to $62,600, though that single-day move reflects broader market conditions as much as the MSCI news specifically.
Strategy Pushes Back: Feedback Closes September 30, Decision by October 16
Strategy responded publicly on August 14, arguing that index providers should measure markets rather than dictate which assets a public company is allowed to hold. The company has made this argument before: in its December 2025 objection to MSCI’s original proposal, Strategy described itself as an operating business with a software segment, active treasury operations, and bitcoin-backed credit instruments, not a passive investment vehicle, and called the 50 percent threshold arbitrary. That objection worked once, when MSCI shelved the original proposal in January and MSTR shares rose as much as 7 percent on the news.
MSCI is accepting feedback on the new proposal through September 30, 2026, and expects to announce a decision no later than October 16. Any adopted changes would take effect in the November 2026 index review, not immediately. Strategy has reportedly been building several billion dollars in cash reserves in recent months, a move that could help its financial-ratio profile regardless of the index outcome. Reporting via CryptoSlate.
September 30 Feedback Deadline and October 16 MSCI Decision to Watch
September 30: MSCI’s public feedback window closes. Strategy, Metaplanet, and other affected companies have until then to make their case, the same route that worked in December 2025.
October 16: MSCI’s target date for announcing whether the new screen goes forward. A yes would set up implementation in the November 2026 index review; a no would be the second time this specific threat has been shelved.
Sources
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin Holders Strategy and Metaplanet Face Stock-Index Exclusion Under MSCI’s New Proposal, August 14, 2026
- CoinDesk: Strategy Says MSCI Should Measure Markets, Not Dictate Corporate Assets, August 14, 2026
- CryptoSlate: Strategy Tells MSCI ‘Bitcoin Doesn’t Need You’ as $2.8 Billion Index Risk Hangs Over MSTR, August 14, 2026
- Benzinga: Strategy, Metaplanet Face MSCI Exclusion Again: Will History Repeat?, August 2026
Editorial Disclosure
This roundup is based entirely on publicly available information including named wire and market-data reporting, and financial news coverage of MSCI’s public consultation materials. Securities and entities discussed include Strategy Inc. (Nasdaq: MSTR), Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake. aktiego.com has not received any compensation from any company, IR firm, or third party mentioned. No staff member or principal of aktiego.com holds a position in any security mentioned at the time of publication. MSCI’s proposal is an open consultation, not a final rule; feedback closes September 30, 2026, and MSCI has stated a decision is expected by October 16, 2026, with any changes taking effect no earlier than the November 2026 index review. JPMorgan’s $2.8 billion passive-selling estimate is that firm’s own analysis, not a confirmed outcome or an independently verified figure. The October 2025 market data cited, including the bitcoin price move and industry-wide liquidation total, is drawn from third-party reporting on that earlier event and is provided as historical context, not a prediction of how markets would respond this time. Digital assets and crypto-linked equities carry significant investment risk including potential total loss of capital. Coverage on aktiego.com is provided for informational and educational purposes only. aktiego.com is not a registered investment advisor. Nothing in this article constitutes financial, investment, or professional advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. For more information please see our full DISCLAIMER.
