Operation Epic Fury
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How the Iran War Is Breaking the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain
Executive Summary Every precision-guided munition in the US inventory, every missile defense radar, every stealth aircraft, and every naval fire control system depends on semiconductors. The most advanced of those chips, the ones inside the guidance systems of THAAD interceptors, the F-35 APG-81 fire control radar, and the Patriot LTAMDS replacement radar, are made using…
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The Embargoed Arsenal: Why China’s Mineral Ban is the Ultimate Weapon in the Gulf
Executive Summary The United States entered Operation Epic Fury in a state of documented mineral dependency that did not begin with the Iran conflict and will not end when it does. According to the US Geological Survey Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, the US is 80% import-dependent for rare earth compounds and metals, with 56% of…
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From Framework to Factory: Inside the Multi-Year Push to Rebuild US Munitions
Executive Summary Operation Epic Fury expended more than 2,000 munitions of various types in its first 100 hours. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates the cost of those 100 hours at $3.7 billion, of which $3.5 billion was unbudgeted. At that pace, the daily munitions replacement cost runs $758.1 million. The all-in daily…
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Six Vulnerabilities That Could Determine the Outcome of the US-Iran Conflict
Executive Summary The United States launched Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026. In the first 36 hours, US and Israeli forces fired more than 3,000 precision-guided munitions and interceptors. Iran responded with approximately 400 ballistic missiles and over 800 drones in the first two days. The exchange immediately raised a question that has become…
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$100 Brent Crude? The Math Behind Goldman Sachs’ Four-Week Oil Disruption Forecast
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28 under Operation Epic Fury have resulted in a near-total commercial shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately 20 million barrels per day, or about 20 percent of global petroleum liquids supply, normally transit the strait. As of March 4, tanker traffic through the corridor is down…