2026 looks complicated for metals and mining. Geopolitics, energy changes, and cautious investment will shape the year. That is the view from Wood Mackenzie.
Peter Schmitz, who leads global copper research, said the shift from molecules to electrons keeps metals in demand. But politics and careful spending will set the pace.
China and U.S.
Two events matter most. China’s 15th Five-Year Plan comes first half of the year. The plan may move away from infrastructure and focus on consumers. That will affect metals trade.
In the U.S., mid-term elections come later in the year. Fiscal policy could get complicated. Tariffs and trade talks with China add more uncertainty.
Energy Transition
Renewables keep growing. Wood Mackenzie slightly adjusted its climate outlook, showing slower global decarbonisation. Battery technology is moving, solid-state batteries could arrive soon. AI will affect material demand. Efficiency might actually increase overall demand in some cases.
Copper supply remains tight. Other metals may have oversupply. That should keep prices low. Gold and silver may benefit from central bank buying and investors seeking safe assets.
Companies and Investment
Mining companies are being careful. Many will return capital or focus on mergers instead of building new mines. Western miners face Chinese state-backed competition. These firms have long-term horizons and different risk approaches.
High metal prices and limited supply might push manufacturers to try alternatives. Copper versus aluminum is one example.
Resource-rich countries are selective about who they work with. Smaller, nimble miners may lead new projects. Big companies are consolidating existing assets.
