Canadian Natural Resources (TSX: CNQ, NYSE: CNQ) released its 2026 operating plan, and it’s a story of steady growth rather than headline-grabbing moves. The company expects to produce between 1,590 and 1,650 MBOE per day, which is about 3% higher than 2025 if they hit the midpoint. Liquids make up roughly three-quarters of that, with natural gas providing the balance.
President Scott Stauth highlighted the strength of Canadian Natural’s low-cost, long-life, low-decline assets. That’s the backbone of their plan. He also noted they’re kicking off front-end engineering on longer-term projects this year, including expansions at Jackfish, Pike 2, and Jackpine. It’s not flashy, but it does give them options if commodity prices move in their favor.
CFO Victor Darel focused on free cash flow. The idea is simple: generate cash, fund dividends and buybacks, pay down debt, and still have room for growth. With a disciplined approach to capital, low maintenance requirements, and a solid asset base, the company expects to produce enough cash to hit all three goals.
Capital and Drilling Plans
The operating budget is $6.3 billion, plus about $125 million for carbon capture projects. Around $175 million is earmarked for FEED studies on potential medium- and long-term growth opportunities.
Drilling continues at a steady pace. They’re targeting 448 net wells across conventional and thermal assets, including light crude, liquids-rich gas, and heavy oil wells. The thermal in situ program moves forward as well, with three CSS pads at Primrose coming online in stages and a SAGD pad at Kirby expected to produce in 2027. At Horizon, the Naphtha Recovery Unit Tailings Treatment project should add about 6,300 barrels per day of synthetic crude in 2027.
Production Mix
Liquids production is expected to rise about 5% over 2025, hitting between 1,177 and 1,220 barrels per day. Natural gas is basically flat. The mix remains balanced: roughly half light crude, NGLs, and SCO, with heavy oil at a quarter, and natural gas at 26%. There’s a planned 35-day turnaround at Horizon in September, which will temporarily reduce output by roughly 29,000 barrels per day.
Financial Position
Net debt was $17.2 billion at the end of Q3 2025. Free cash flow for the quarter was $379 million, down from last year, but the company’s low-decline assets and disciplined capital spending should keep cash generation stable. As debt comes down, more cash is expected to return to shareholders.
Bottom Line
Canadian Natural’s 2026 plan is about execution, cash flow, and optionality. Nothing here screams bold expansion, but that’s intentional. Investors should watch how Horizon and thermal in situ projects ramp up, and whether the company hits its capital efficiency targets. For a conservative, cash-generating play in the energy sector, CNQ seems to be keeping its footing solid while quietly preparing for optional upside if the market improves.
