Executive Summary
The critical minerals sector is gaining momentum in 2026, driven by U.S. government efforts to secure domestic and allied supply chains amid geopolitical risks, particularly China’s dominance in processing (~90% for many key minerals). The Pentagon committed over $4.5 billion in capital to critical minerals deals in late 2025, alongside broader funding of $7.5 billion+ through legislation supporting stockpiles, investments, equity stakes, and strategic partnerships.
Critical minerals include rare earths, antimony, graphite, uranium, and aluminum essential for defense, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and technology infrastructure. The global market is projected at $320 billion in 2026, with growth continuing at a strong pace (some forecasts indicate 18.7% CAGR through 2030).
Key players include:
- GoldHaven Resources (CSE: GOH / OTCQB: GHVNF) – exploration-focused micro-cap
- Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA) – antimony/gold with DoD partnerships
- Graphite One (TSXV: GPH / OTCQX: GPHOF) – graphite plus rare earth potential
- Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU) – uranium enrichment expansion
- Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) – new U.S. aluminum smelter JV
These companies represent a spectrum of risk and reward, from speculative juniors to more established names benefiting from policy tailwinds.
Market Overview
Critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, rare earths, graphite, antimony, uranium, and aluminum face supply risks due to concentration in China and processing bottlenecks. U.S. policy emphasizes domestic production, stockpiling, and partnerships with allied nations.
Key projections:
- Global market: ~$320 billion in 2026
- Growth drivers: EVs, renewable energy, defense needs, and supply diversification
- Government support: Pentagon $4.5B+ commitments, additional billions for stockpiles and supply chain initiatives
- Long-term demand: Trillions in investment expected to secure supply through 2040
| Mineral | Key Driver | Projected Demand Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Rare Earths | Magnets, defense | High – could triple by 2030 under net-zero scenarios |
| Antimony | Military spec (trisulfide) | Supply-constrained; DoD priority |
| Graphite | Batteries, REE co-products | Largest U.S. deposit potential |
| Uranium | Nuclear energy and security | Enrichment expansion |
| Aluminum | Defense, EVs, aerospace | New U.S. primary production |
Key Trends and Drivers
- Government Funding Surge: Pentagon investments, equity stakes, price supports, and offtake agreements reduce project risk.
- Defense & National Security Link: Minerals are critical in weapons, aircraft, and munitions; supply chain disruptions pose national security risks.
- Policy Shifts: Executive orders, bilateral deals, and incentives support domestic production and reduce import reliance.
- Geopolitical & Transition Demand: EVs, renewables, and defense needs offset softer industrial demand; prices for most minerals expected to rise in 2026.
- Challenges: High volatility, permitting delays, and capital-intensive projects remain concerns, though policy support mitigates risk for aligned companies.
Company Analysis
| Company | Primary Focus | Market Cap (USD) | Price (USD) | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GoldHaven Resources (CSE: GOH / OTCQB: GHVNF) | Porphyry exploration (Cu-Au-Ag-Pb-Zn-W, indium) | 9–12M | 0.19–0.28 | High-grade multi-commodity potential; speculative micro-cap. |
| Perpetua Resources (NASDAQ: PPTA) | Antimony/gold (Stibnite Project); DoD pilot | 3.9–4.3B | 32–35 | Defense ties; $22.4M+ DOE/DOTC funding; strong policy alignment. |
| Graphite One (TSXV: GPH / OTCQX: GPHOF) | Graphite + REE (Alaska deposit) | 300–450M | 1.70–2.43 | USGS-largest U.S. graphite deposit; REE testing planned for 2026. |
| Centrus Energy (NYSE: LEU) | Uranium enrichment expansion | 5.4–6.2B | 300–338 | Oak Ridge investment; DOE funding; nuclear/security focus. |
| Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) | Primary aluminum JV (new U.S. smelter) | 4.4–4.6B | 48–49 | First new U.S. smelter since 1980; JV with EGA; addresses import reliance. |
Perpetua, Centrus, and Century Aluminum offer stronger liquidity, market cap, and policy alignment, while GoldHaven and Graphite One provide higher upside through exploration but with more risk.
Opportunities and Risks
Opportunities:
- Policy-driven funding and equity reduce project risks
- Defense premiums for domestic supply, antimony, and rare earths
- Multi-commodity discoveries (e.g., indium, tungsten)
- Long-term demand from EVs, renewables, and nuclear energy
Risks:
- High volatility in exploration-stage companies (GoldHaven)
- Commodity price swings and geopolitical events
- Permitting delays, capital intensity, and project execution risks
- Market corrections in speculative micro-caps
Investment Considerations
- Stable/Policy-Aligned Plays: Perpetua, Centrus, and Century Aluminum for lower-risk exposure and direct government support
- Speculative Exploration: GoldHaven and Graphite One for high-upside potential in multi-commodity deposits
- Diversification: Spread investments across different minerals and market caps
- Monitoring: Keep track of DoD contracts, funding announcements, commodity prices, and geopolitical developments
Micro-caps are highly volatile; potential exists for both significant gains and total losses. Always consult licensed financial advisors before investing.
Conclusion
Strategic minerals are a high-growth sector in 2026, backed by record government support and rising geopolitical importance. Investments aligned with defense, energy transition, and domestic supply chains offer both stability and upside, while exploration-stage companies provide speculative opportunities. Investors focusing on national security, resource independence, and electrification trends should closely watch this sector.
Forward-looking information is subject to risks and uncertainties. Please read our full DISCLAIMER.
